MS Windows Phone 7: MS ≠ Market Share

We wrote in past months about the emergence of the 4th Paradigm, or internet appliance, which extends from an employee to a lifestyle focus.  The 4th Paradigm became firmly entrenched as Apple Computer surpassed Microsoft as the most valuable tech company – Apple is on a path, now, to overtake Exxon Mobil Corp. as the largest company by market capitalization.  We also wrote about the death of Microsoft’s KIN, an effort build a phone with social networking and Microsoft’s Zune music player, predicting that, while Microsoft’s efforts to play in the SmartPhone market, it’s phone OS initiative was destined toward mediocrity.

Microsoft, today, introduced Windows Phone 7.  Features include: connectivity to Xbox Live, allowing users to play some Xbox games on their phones, and an emphasis on social networking links to sites like Facebook. 

The key determinant of success, however, will be in the business arena, where RIM’s Blackberry still dominates.  Microsoft touts phone access to PC-based files.  This is probably the biggest indicator of its future market share.  The paradigm has changed, and being an addendum to the old paradigm does not figure to attract buyers. 

With Android activating 110,000+ SmartPhone’s each day and Apple’s iPhone growth contributing to its market cap status, the success of Windows Phone 7 is questionable.  In fact, the global market share for Windows phones is expected to end the year at 4.7%, down from 8.7% in 2009, according to Gartner.  This places Windows Phone 7 at a remote 5th place behind Nokia ‘s Symbian at 40%, Android at 17.7%, RIM at 17.5%, and Apple at 15.4%.

It is unlikely that this market share positioning will change.

Leave a Reply