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THE SECG BLOG


Toyota Recall – Time to Revisit the Fabled Toyota Production System

August 28th, 2010    By Ted Bullen

Yesterday, Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. announced that will conduct a voluntary safety recall of an estimated 1.1.3 million Toyota Corrolla and Corolla Matrix with model years ranging from 2005 to 2008.  The recall is to address some Engine Control Modules that have been improperly manufactured.

Federal safety regulators, this week, began an engineering analysis of stalling in Corolla and Matrix cars. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration had received 26 complaints of vehicles stalling when it opened a preliminary evaluation last November. It reported 163 additional complaints when it opened the engineering analysis.

Toyota said there were three unconfirmed accidents alleged to be related to this current, Engine Control Modul, issue, one of which might have resulted in a minor injury.

Toyota has been plagued by a rash of quality problems involving faulty gas pedals, floor mats, brakes, electronic stability control systems, steering systems and other defects. Now the engine control units are added to the list.

Toyota has recalled about 10 million worldwide in the last year.   Quality issues have hurt the automaker’s reputation for reliability and dependability, and affected its sales position. Through the first seven months of this year, Toyota’s U.S. market share dropped to 15.2% from 16.3%, putting it in third place in the U.S. auto market behind General Motors and Ford Motor Company.

To endure massive, and highly publicized, quality issues is doubly damaging, as Toyota is the creator of the famed Toyota Production System (TPS) from which Lean Manufacturing was derived.  Lean Manufacturing is broadly taught and followed as a methodology for driving quality issues and cost out of the manufacturing process.  TPS has a goal to “build a culture of stopping to fix problems, to get quality right from the first.”

While the Toyota brand may yet escape damage from this latest recall, it would be wise for Toyota to revisit TPS as a major point of emphasis, and to prove it by demonstrating a strong track record of quality going forward.


Hindenburg Omen – Strike Two and One to Go

August 27th, 2010    By Ted Bullen

The Hindenburg Omen is an econometrics-based model that has been successful in predicting stock market crashes. The Omen has been behind every market crash since 1987, but significant stock-market declines have followed only 25% of the time.

The Hindenburg, of course, was the German passenger airship LZ 129 Hindenburg which caught fire, and was destroyed, as it was attempting to dock at the Lakehurst Naval Air Station in New Jersey.  Thirty-five people, of the ninety-five people on board, were killed.  There was also one fatality on the ground.

The Omen’s creator is mathematician Jim Miekka, with the model’s name being suggested by the late Kennedy Gammage.  The Omen is triggered when the following occur:

  • The daily number of NYSE new 52-week highs and the daily number of new 52-week lows must both be greater than 2.8% of total NYSE issues traded that day.
  • The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average.
  • The McClellan Oscillator (a technical measure of “overbought” vs. “oversold” conditions) is negative on that same day.
  • New 52-week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52-week lows. This condition is absolutely mandatory.

 

The traditional definition requires each condition to occur on the same day. Once the signal has occurred, it is valid for 30 days.  To eliminate false positives technical analysts have imposed the addition conditions that the Hindenburg Omen:

  • Must be triggered three times in a row within a month from the first triggering event for said initial trigger signal to be considered to be valid – requires double confirmation.
  • Is only valid when tightly coupled triggerings occur within a two-week period of time.

 

These criteria have been hit twice since Aug. 12, prompting Miekka to get out of the market entirely.  Based on recent market action, many others may follow suit.

It’s not just the Omen that has investors worried.  Macroeconomic indicators suggest that the job market is not going to turn around soon.  Banks, insurance companies, and manufacturers, all, are hoarding cash.  This bodes poorly for the housing market.  As well, the Wall Street Journal reports that there is much dissention within the Fed over policy positions.  In addition, bailouts have failed to fix the problems in the U.S. financial sector.

Nobody wants to see a stock market crash, but those in power at the U.S. Treasury and at the Fed had better be clutch hitters in order to avoid a “third strike.”


Chocolate: The New Heart Medicine

August 21st, 2010    By Ted Bullen

A study, published online this week and reported in Circulation: Heart Failure, a journal of the American Heart Association, finds that chocolate protects women from heart failure.  The nine-year study, conducted among 31,823 Swedish women, looked at the relationship between the amount of high-quality (70% cocoa) dark chocolate the eaten and the risk of heart failure.  The researchers found that women who ate an average of one to three servings per month had a 26 per cent lower risk of developing heart failure Those who had one to two servings of the high-quality chocolate per week had a 32 per cent lower risk  during the study period.

Chocolate is a high-concentration source of flavanoids, a Polyphenol.  Studies have already shown that the health benefits flavanoids in chocolate include:

  • Reduced risk of cardiovascular disease by significantly reducing systolic and diastolic blood pressure.
  • Increased antioxidant capacity of the body.  Antioxidants are believed to help the body’s cells resist damage caused by free radicals that are formed by normal bodily processes such as breathing and from environmental contaminants like cigarette smoke.  
  • Improved blood flow via increased production of nitric oxide.  Nitric Oxide increased dilation and inhibits platelet aggregation.
  • Positive influence on metabolic function
  • Lower Cholesterol – Reduced LDL cholesterol (the bad cholesterol) by up to 10 percent.

 

Now comes a study that shows a lower risk of heart failure in women.  It should be emphasized that the chocolate referenced in the studies is high-quality, and, therefore, more expensive, chocolate, such as Amano and Guittard, that has at least 70% cocoa.  Still, it is hard to think of a finer, and tastier, preventative medicine.


Intel to Buy McAfee – Initiative to “Secure” the Future

August 19th, 2010    By Ted Bullen

Intel Corporation announced today that it is buying computer-security software company, McAfee for $7.68 billion in an all-cash deal.  The stated strategy is to combine McAfee’s security expertise with Intel-based products, especially for Smartphone and other, wireless internet-connected, devices.  Intel looks at security as a necessary “third pillar” in the computing experience in addition to “energy-efficient performance and connectivity.”

Intel, whose core market is computer microprocessors, is trying to expand into the burgeoning wireless market. The number of internet-enabled phones has already surpassed the number of internet enabled computers. 

Even with the McAfee acquisition, Intel’s intent to become a dominant player in the Smartphone market faces an uphill battle with ARM Holdings.  ARM is the maker of the processors for the iPhone and is far more prevalent in the imbedded processor market. 

It is important to point out that security is not yet an issue in this market.  As well, the anti-virus market for Smartphones is miniscule.  While things change rapidly for high tech companies, on the surface, the prospects for Intel’s success, with its new strategy for the future, is hardly secure.


Dell Streak – Niche Tablet or Newton Wannabe?

August 14th, 2010    By Ted Bullen

Remember the Apple Newton?  The term PDA (Personal Digital Assistant) was coined to describe the Newton.  Initially intended to reinvent personal computing, it ultimately was marketed as a platform which would be a complementary to the personal computer.  Aside from its famous, and, sometimes not so accurate, handwriting recognition software, the Newton was just a bit too large to carry around in your pocket (4.5 x 7.25 x 0.75 inches).  It had a short lifespan of five years.  It is, however, considered to have been influential in the development of the Apple iPhone.

Apple has come a long way since the Newton, with mammoth sales of its popular iPhone, which, as we previously wrote, transformed Apple Computer Inc. from a personal computer company into a lifestyle computing company, and the iPad multi-touch tablet computer which has the potential of becoming a replacement for notebook and/or notepad computers.

Apple’s success has driven other, former competitors in the PC marketplace into both the Smart Phone market (witness HP and its acquisition of Palm) and multi-touch tablet market, with products meant for Web surfing, social networking, e-mail, games, productivity, navigation, book reading, and playing music and videos.

Enter the Dell Streak, a product meant to enter both the SmartPhone and Tablet markets.  The Streak is being called a “tweener” device.  Though about half the thickness of the Newton (0.4 inches), the footprint of the Streak is remarkably close to the original Newton, and, as was the Newton, a bit too big to be carried in your pocket. 

The Streak is best handled in landscape form, like a video game device, though with much poorer screen resolution.  The price-point is the same as that or the original Newton (US$499.00), when purchased without a two-year phone contract from AT&T.  The phone feature lowers the price to US$300.00.  The device is awkward to handle for phone calls and somewhat too small to dominate as an e-Book reader.

The Streak has all the appearances of a double “me too” product, with Dell trying to reshape itself, like Apple, as a lifestyle computing company.  Whether or not this will come to fruition is yet to be seen as the Streak has some good features, but none that will transform the industry.  The Streak is more likely to end up with a short lifespan, equal to or less than the Newton, but without the prospect, unlike the Newton, of engendering future paradigm-changing technology.


HP = “Huge Problem” and Poster Child of Situational Ethics

August 6th, 2010    By Ted Bullen

Hewlett-Packard Co. CEO Mark Hurd abruptly resigned today after the company revealed his secret relationship with a former contractor.  This sent the stock tumbling in afterhours trading.  The company said he falsified expense reports and other financial documents to conceal the relationship and help get the contractor paid for work she didn’t do.

Hurd said it was a “painful decision” to leave but acknowledged there were “instances in which I did not live up to the standards and principles of trust, respect and integrity that I have espoused at HP.”  Hurd will take his standards and integrity with him along with  a $12.2 million severerence payment and nearly 350,000 shares of HP stock worth about $16 million at today’sclosing price.  The company also extended the deadline for exercising options to buy up to 775,000 HP shares.  This  represents the ultimate in irony.

In January of 2006, HP’s board of directors, along with then President Mark Hurd, met to discuss long-term strategies.  A news article leaked about that meeting.  The board chairman, Patricia Dunn, was angered and determined to find out the source of the leak.  The chair of HP’s corporate governance committee, and fellow director, Tom Perkins told Ms. Dunn to simply ask the members of the board of directors who was the source cited in the story and to seek an apology.

Upon learning of Dunn’s plans to go ahead with a plan to apply a process called pre-texting, a process to obtain the private phone records of members of the board via questionable means, Mr. Perkins resigned in protest.  For Dunn, that was not all that bad, as she wanted him off the board anyway.

Ultimately, the source of the leak was found and, under pressure, board member George Keyworth resigned.  However, when news of HP’s tactics became public, a firestorm of activity took place that included SEC filings by HP and an appearance before the US House of Representatives House Energy and Commerce Committee’s subcommittee on investigations.  The subcommittee denounced the methods HP used to find the source of boardroom leaks and expressed alarm over how the company’s leadership could think the practices used in the investigation were ethical.

In the aftershock, additional resignations occurred, including: Patricia Dunn, herself, Senior Council and chief ethics officer, Kevin Hunsaker, General Counsel Ann Baskins, and Anthony Gentilucci, HP’s global security manager.  Additionally, the reputation of the firm as an extremely ethical company has been tainted, perhaps forever.

HP’s President, Mard Hurd, remained but was unable and/or unwilling to explain exactly what happened and what his role was.  It was then announced that Hurd would replace Dunn immediately as chairman of the company.

Business ethics means doing the right thing in a business situation.  However, for many, there exists a concept known as Situational Ethics which is a belief that all truths are relative.  Situational ethics creates a moral environment colored by unlimited shades of gray and implies the notion that one can conquer by genius and strength because there really is no law. 

HP has shown, throughout the decade, a corporate culture steeped in situational ethics, allowing its leadership to wade deeply into the gray areas as long as stock prices continued to grow.  After two high profile ethics lapses, it would be advisable for HP to change course or consider forever marking itself as a case study in poor ethical behavior.


Disney Follows the Money Toward Its Family Roots

July 31st, 2010    By Ted Bullen

The Walt Disney Co. has announced a deal to sell Miramax Films to a group of investors for $660 million.  Miramax helped push independent movies into the mainstream. Miramax has many Oscar-winning films in its library and launched the career of director, Quentin Tarantino. 

The move comes at a time when DVD sales are on the decline.  Disney’s family-centric brands, such as Pixar, and Marvel, are able to deliver multiple avenues of revenue, such as action figures and video games.  Miramax could not monetize its films in this way.

A wise leader once said, “The strength of any nation lies in the strength of its families.”  Apparently, also, the strength of the corporate bottom line lies in the family.


Luxury versus Luxury – Opposing Air Transportation Strategies

July 23rd, 2010    By Ted Bullen

One is enormous, requiring airport renovation and runway lengthening to accommodate. The other is sleek, light-weight and easily able to access regional airports.

The Airbus 380 claims 49 percent more room than a Boeing 747, with operating costs at around 15 to 20 percent lower per seat. The Airbus 380 claims lower emissions, less noise and a seating capacity as high as 800, though a more reasonable configuration will average 525, which is double that of the B747. In the Jumbo class of aircraft, the A380 may well push the B747 to extinction.

The new Boeing 787 Dreamliner, built with advanced composite materials, is ultra-light and fuel efficient. It also has a range that can extend to 8600 nautical miles, traveling at Mach 0.85, while carrying about 280 passengers. Boeing says the aircraft will reduce fuel consumption by 20 percent and operating costs as a result by 15 percent. The B-787 is pressurized for a lower altitude and with higher cabin humidity, which adds to passenger comfort. It is designed to revolutionize point-to-point service.

Issues at play include a depressed travel industry, with fewer long-distance travelers. The A380, at a unit cost of US$327 million has already seen delayed or cancelled orders. The B787 carries a unit cost of US$149 million has, approximately 1000 orders on the books, and, so far, no delays or cancellations. However, a worsening of the travel slump could change that.

Ultimately, though, the battle will be waged on strategy. The hub-based, Super Jumbo strategy versus the point-to-point strategy will define the industry going forward.


U. S. Oil Industry is Sinking

July 19th, 2010    By Ted Bullen

Moody’s Analytics has estimated the impact of the Gulf Oil Spill:

  • 17000 jobs lost by year end, due to federal deepwater drilling moratorium. Houston-based Diamond Offshore announced, on July 9, that its Ocean Endeavor drilling rig will leave the Gulf of Mexico and move to Egyptian waters immediately. It has other rigs that may leave as well.
  • $12 billion by year end
  • The economic impact will be centered in Gulf region, however a secondary impact by increased unemployment

 

Unknown to most Americans is the fact that Interior Secretary, Ken Salazar, scrapped 77 oil lease parcels in Utah, shortly after taking office two years ago. He claimed that the leases were rushed by the previous administration and wanted an investigation.

Salazar’s inspector general evaluated the process and found nothing wrong with the auction of the leases. The report came out on December 28, 2009, but did not come to light until copy was sought under an open-records request by U.S. Rep. Rob Bishop.

Salazar offers no apologies, and will not reverse his actions, preferring to further wait while the department has a “fresh look” at the parcels, before deciding on whether or not to release them.

There is little doubt that this look will continue into perpetuity, sinking out of sight and mind, or, at least until there is a massive shift in government policy.


LEED – Don’t Follow

July 12th, 2010    By Ted Bullen

In the early 1990’s, Rolf Eligehausen, Professor at the University of Stuttgart’s Institute of Construction Materials, published a research on anchorage in concrete construction.  He had developed a theory related to cracked concrete in building structures.  The theory states that should a crack form near a mechanical wedge anchor in a concrete structure, the crack will grow until it reaches the anchor, diminishing the anchor’s design strength.  Eligehausen’s research, eventually, became a part of International Building Code (IBC) 2003, now IBC 2006. 

One mechanical wedge anchor manufacturer, Hilti, bought into the standard, while others fought it.  The naysayers’ stand was that, for many years, there had been no problems related to the holding strength of an anchor and the existence of cracks in concrete structures.  These companies watched as IBC 2006 was adopted in California, and, soon, throughout the United States.  Suddenly, Hilti found itself as the sole provider of IBC 2006-compliant mechanical wedge anchors.  They were on the train and the other major manufacturers stood at the station and watched them leave.  Of course, it soon became apparent that fighting the standard was the wrong move.  These recalcitrant manufacturers began to hurry to develop IBC 2006-compliant products – a very time-consuming, and costly, process.  Of course, these companies lost a large amount of revenue while their products remained out of compliance to the code.

Another commercial construction-related train is now embarking, LEED.  LEED stands for Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design.  LEED, developed by the US Green Building Council, has become an internationally recognized green building certification system.  It was created with the intent to improve energy savings, water efficiency, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, improved indoor environmental quality, and management of resources and their impacts. 

The Green Building Certification Institute was formed to develop certification exams for architects, engineers, and construction project managers.  Today, almost every construction-related firm has LEED Accredited Professionals on staff.

As well, construction projects earn LEED credits in the following areas: sustainable sites, water efficiency, energy and atmosphere, materials and resources, indoor environmental quality, and innovation in design.  Project certifications range from “Certified” to “Platinum.”  While LEED is not the law of the land, almost every commercial construction project seeks LEED certification.

As the train is already leaving the station, construction professionals must LEED and not follow – get on the train or become irrelevant.